Day started out of range and value and also Friday, the last trading day ended with a spike. Initial trading was slow circling back to open price of 3779.50. Futures trading volume was up on Friday. The 6:45 candle tested the upside and did not reach the overnight high. The first range extension was to the downside in B period at 7 am. The base of the spike from Friday was at 3741 and acted as a support. The lowest the range extension in period B went was 3751.75. That is also 14 points short of the overnight low. In D period starting at 8 am, price finally crossed the opening price 3779.50 and did not come back down. Even though we had one range extension to the downside the POC was now at 3784 and above the settlement from Friday 3764. This would argue for establishment of higher value and in favor of taking a long.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aZ3Wv41z/
A good entry would have been at .618 retracement at 8:45 am. The price was now above opening and came within one tick of the .618 retracement.
POC kept moving higher, at 10:30 it was at 3788. At 10:39 it looked like a P shaped day, indicating short covering.
11:10 am the POC is now @ 3795.5 indicating higher prices are being accepted.
A short trade emerged at 3807.75, but was rejected due to the continued upward momentum and closeness to the POC of 3795.
Eventually there was a range extension at 11:42 very late in the session. The overnight high was 3813.25 and was also taken out. Instead of a P shape we are now expanding upwards with a high at 3822. 3820 was a swing high from previously. I did not fade any of those extremes (overnight high and session high) because a range extension was to be expected.
Settlement was 3809.25. The volume for the day was down though, indicating this was still a short covering day with no new longs. Tomorrow can be expected to be either be a balance day or lower value day.
Martin's Travel Blog 