I went short at 6:38 at 3857 based on the stacked imbalance at 6:36 candle. Trade worked out but I went out too early.
We opened at 3850.75 and traded across the open price until 8:30 E period. Due to stacked imbalances at the beginning I was able to to get a decent trade early but left trade too early and in a haste. I could have set my stop loss at .618 fibonacci and been fine. My entry trade location one tick above the stacked imbalance was excellent. IB was 40 points wide. Since we opened on the POC from yesterday and inside range and value an open trade was a no go. A period did test up to overnight value area high but rejected and did not go further up to overnight high which is why I took the first trade short. B and C period returned and checked overnight high but were quickly rejected.
POC was at 3833. Settlement for the day was at 20 points under Wednesday at 3819.5, value was overlapping to lower. The shape of the TPO distribution is somewhat even like a bell curve with no excess at the high and low. We had range extensions on both sides.
Trade 2 at 8:49 – 3834.25 based on stacked imbalance. I should have entered at 3831.50
The red circle in the following picture shows poor trade location for a long due to the fact that I am already at beyond .618 fib retracement, favoring more a further downward trend instead of an upward trend. In the red area I took a long but got out qucik, luckily. Probably rushed and not focused enough due to the kids. I was far enough from POC which was at 3848 at that point and also away from OPEN price. which is orange line. Long term trend was down, why am I taking a short? The back and forth in stacked imbalances could have also been an indicator of indecission which the 3 min bar is also expressing.
Trade 3 was a long again at 50% retracement long at 3823.25 and stopped out at 3820.25. See next picture, the long entry is the first entry. 50% and .618 did not hold and price went even lower. Was I bottom fishing or trying to fade a trend? POC was at 3843 at this point far enough away. Entry was at 12:07 and 12:09 for entry and stop loss.
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