Open today was 3921.75 which was out of range and value from yesterday’s range high 3904.50. The first part of the session we have to watch if this gap closes and then trade with the trend or if the gap will stay open. Then we can also trade with the trend. If price trades within the gap but does not close, we have no clear directional conviction. There was a good amount of overnight longs today.
Overnight trading was long.
The first 15 minutes were undecided, with price circling back through the OPEN price. I have divided the day into 2 parts. The first part is period A, B and C from 6:30 to 8:00 which were trending and the rest of the day which was range bound and had no directional conviction. The first horizontal line is the open price, the second is the Range high 3904.50 from yesterday. Once that area was left to the downside, a short should have been entered. The 3822 line is yesterday’s settle, where a small retracement took place. 3867 was the day’s POC and VPOC. The low of the session was at 3852.50 in E session at 8:30.
The first 15 minute of trading show not much action with the first stacked imbalance at 6:45
The next 15 minutes show seller dominance on the footprint chart, especially in the candle at 7 am.
This can be better illustrated with the Market Profile. The second part of the day was a very range bound and non-trend evenly distributed bell curve.
When combined, the profile takes the shape of a b, indicating long liquidation. Value was established lower. Settlement today is at 3866. Today’s range was wide with almost 70 points. Most trading took place in A B and C period, the IB was 55 points wide.
My trades today, a short at 10:45 am that was stopped out immediately: I took the 50% retracement with .617 as a stop loss. The .617 as an entry point and a one point stop loss would have been more successful. This trend had no follow through, which would have not made not successful anyway. The overall trend for the day was down so that was correct but for the latter part of the day direction was undecided. Moreover, trade location was poor as it was close to the POC at 3867.
Earlier, I also entered a long trade at 10:30 looking for a long at .617 retracement, which I got stopped out of as well. Since price went further down after that, I assumed a short in the next trade (above).
Overall, perception of price has not changed today. We are still trading inside our big up day from last Friday 10/28. Most likely, we are hedging ahead of today’s FOMC meeting.
Due to the fact that we have a wide IB this can be considered a normal day. The other timeframe seller entered early and drove price down with a single print selling tail, buyers only showed up in C period. For the rest of the day, price was moving sideways.
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