OPEN was at 3983, out of value but inside range from yesterday and at the overnight trading low. So far we had one range extension to the downside in C period.
At the end of the day we only had three more small range extensions to the downside in I, K and L period. That is more evident when looking at the IB with a range of 20.75. The total range for the day ended up being only 30.75. Settlement was lower today at 3968.50. Due to the small range, today would be considered a normal day. Buyer and Seller’s perception of value is similar, we had a small IB and very limited range extensions to the downside signaling balance leaning to the downside. Price did not move far away from value. POC is at 3976.50. This was a difficult trading day as there were only one good opportunity as price did not venture far from POC. The high in G period (9:30 am) and the subsequent retracement was the only opportunity at the extreme. I missed that trade by one tick! The other extreme was at the end of the session when the low of the session was established at 3962. The Fibonacci retracement would have gotten me in with a 2 point stop loss, exit would have been at the POC.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TNLIKxXi/
Trade 3:
Entry short at 9:51 am after the 9:45 candle reached a high that was likely to stand, general direction was down for the day. Unfortunately, I got kicked out by one tick due to the speed of bidding. This would have been a good short trade, though.
The 9:51 candle shows the speed of tape. Should have set the stop loss at the high of the Fibonacci anchor candle. TPO value area high is a good entry point, just need to wait for retracement and set my stop loss wider.
Trade 2:
Straight entry at the TPO Value area, high Yellow line. Stacked imbalance could have been an indicator that buying could continue. Next time I need to monitor this area instead of jumping the gun and entering the trade at that level because due to short covering there can be excess. Wait for retracement next time. There was also higher speed than normal (speed of tape) which is an area I should avoid altogether anyway or set my stop loss much wider. I entered a short prematurely at 9:44 am candle and got kicked out in the same candle.
Trade 1: Short at the trendline at 9:31 with exit at 9:37. Seemed like a good trendline. It looked like price will not come up to area TPO value area high.
What spoke against this short trade: We are not at the extreme, we are at the POC and the VPOC and there is a stacked imbalance one candle before the candle I am looking to go short. Only the arbitrary trend line and the delta turnaround is in my favor.
Trade 0:
This was my first trade, a long. I was thinking the price would bounce here and go up. If there was a breakup to the upside, I would have been able to partake in that, even though the overall trend was down for the day. I entered the trade at 9:20 and got stopped out at 9:21.
Price came down even further to the TPO value area low, I should have waited for that low to come in. The stacked imbalance was already in and I could not see it until after I already had entered the trade. I am underneath the TPO POC and the VPOC. The only indicator in my favor was the delta turnaround at the 9:16 candle. The Value area low was a way better reference point than the arbritary lines of my rectangle. A 50% retracement would have also gotten me at the 9:27 candle. See picture after footprint chart.
Video of first couple trades and day summary so far:
2nd video, last trade ideas for the remainder of the last part of the trading day:
Entry at the 50% at 12:24 candle would have gotten me in at 3964.75 A stop loss of 2 points would have been sufficient to keep me in the trade for the price to go up to POC at around 3975. I did not take this trade as a further continuation to the downside would have been likely too at this point (we had multiple range extensions to the downside) and the retracements were too deep in the further up swings. We knew the low was in when the candle at 12:18 pm had a stacked imbalance, price did not move up in the following candle and was green and we were also below the value area low.
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