We are currently trading above settlement from Friday and accumulated quite a few longs overnight, with the overnight high at 3805 two ticks away from Friday’s excess high. We are opening out of value, but are inside range from Friday. We are trading down from the Open at 3793, now price bounced at Friday’s Settlement 3779.50 and we’re heading up again. At 6:48 we are testing down to settlement again. It looks like the market is waiting for new information or is in a holding pattern. No clear direction has yet emerged.
As of 8:15 we have had one range extension to the upside in B period (high at 3800) the POC is at 3785.5. The IB (27.75) is very narrow, arguing for an upset in either direction or range bound trading all day. Best trade location come at the extremes. No clear direction is visible
First trade long at 50% retracement, maybe? 3786.75 with stop loss at 3784.75, but that is too close to POC. Better to wait for price to trade back to extremes. Price did not trade back to 50%. The upper extremes are going to be at current high of 3800 and also overnight high which is at 3805. After that we also have 3805.50 which is the excess high from Friday.
Trade 2 setup: Going long now at 50% with stop loss at one tick under .618
The trend is looking like it is going further up, slowly but steady. Got stopped out right away, price dropped back down to settlement. Got in at 8:38 candle and back out at 8:40 This is further evidence price will keep circling back and forth between extremes of 3800 on the upside and 3771 on the downside. Going forward, avoid the POC at 3785.50.
The stacked imbalances at 37 min and 39min toward the .50 level could have been an indicator that this level is not going to hold. The candles at 28 and 33 are normal at the beginning of a retracement.
We are back at settlement from Friday:
Trade 3:
Placed a short based on strong stacked imbalances and 50% retracement. Got stopped out, small loss of 3 ticks.
Entry at the 04 candle, got stopped out at 06 candle. Footprint chart did provide any clues. It is hard to pick winners in between extremes.
Trade 4 retracement 50%
This trade worked out, small profit, came back up to 50% retracement one more time at 10:30 (I entered traded at 10:20). Observed Footprint chart for any indicator that price would come back up. POC moved up 3787.50 (from 3785.50). Price circled back above the meaning that there are still a few more buyers that want to check the upper extreme.
Painful trade: Fading extreme/ Top picking?not retracement
Order filled at 3796.50 which is 2 ticks before D period’s high, E period’s high at 3797.75. Since it is a range bound day, it is very unlikely that the current high of, 3800 will be taken out. But actually, price went higher, I took a loss at this trade. Entered at 11 am and exit 11:10. Why did I try to pick a top and fade extreme. I should have waited at least for a retracement. Mentally, I was set on the fact this is going to be a range bound day, but it ended up being a double distribution day. The first range extensions and the consistently upward moving POC should have been a good indicator that there might be another range extensions to the upside. Moreover, my last short trade did make some money, but the trend turned upward shortly after I exited (luckily.) Instead of thinking about what might happen, I should focus more on what is currently happening and enter and exit trades accordingly.
I even had the chance to exit this trade at a retracement but I did not take it (long red candle)!
Footprint chart did not provide any clues, entry point at long horizontal line below!
Trade 5
Fib Retracement, going short. Entry at 3812 50%, stopped out at 3814.
The next trade, a similar Fibonacci trade going short, got stopped out right away too. Should have not entered this trade.
Settlement is at 3815.25, above Friday’s Settle. Value was higher and overlapping. Small daily range of 50.5 in anticipation of Midterms tomorrow.
Trades recap of the day:
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